As we all have seen, we’ve been met with the same joke every year about armies dying in the current or the following year. This has now become a running gag within Club Penguin Armies, the fact that armies have yet to “die” despite the circumstances they face each year. Throughout all this time, however, people have had the wrong idea about how armies will actually die.
Armies Pseudo-Death Theory
In recent years, speculation over the death of armies has grown exponentially higher. With each passing year, beliefs about the end of our community became more apparent and for good reasons. Several previous figureheads, such as Aaronstone, have explained in analyses that the average state of armies currently wouldn’t even compare to previous years, showing massive decreases in events and performance.
This falls in line with the forecasts of many individuals believing armies will die, showing legitimate predictions that armies will not survive for long. However, what most do not account for is the resurgence factor. In a recent post this year, I explained how most, if not all, people who join CPA will end up at one point returning one way or another, usually more than once. Club Penguin Armies is in a constant loop of old faces joining and leaving, though it is without a doubt decreasing each year.
The fact of the matter is, our community can suffice itself infinitely. The recent revivals of big powerhouse armies such as Doritos, Aliens, and Dark Warriors are a good example of resurgence playing its part in the community. Armies have also seen to develop back to having different CPPSs as a more prominent means of hosting events, giving armies a broader image in the Club Penguin community.
This all plays out into the loop theory of armies, figuring out ways and means to continue to exist and flourish. Armies will continue to exist for a good while, no doubt about it. The only time when we could’ve said it is over was during the death of Club Penguin. Given that private servers, especially army private servers, will continue to self create itself in a constant loop (unless Disney does a broad shutdown, though it is less likely even during the shutdown of CPO), there will be no death of armies any time soon.
By current definition, the death of armies is the closure of all army operations and activities point-blank. This would mean a community-wide census to shut down all armies, or a massive breach that terminates either all CPPS or armies themselves. Realistically, this will never happen again due to the reasons above. Even for the case of the fall of leagues, on which many armies depend on, the community has figured out ways before to exist without organisations. That’s why this post will help bring about a new definition to what really will be the death of armies.
Armies Ortho-Death Theory
The way armies can be looked at to determine their activity and death forecast is two things: activity cost, and legacy cost. When we say activity, its definition varies between everyone’s perception, but it all comes down to the moment when all armies ‘naturally’ die. Regardless of its factor, it is still something that plays a role in determining the current status of armies. However, due to its inconsistencies and how it can be artificial in today’s landscape, it is not as big a factor as the legacy cost.
The legacy cost is split into three: the politics, the warfare, and the chaos elements. These are most assured by the huge presence of major armies around it, as seen in the early years. Despite what the small/medium armies can accomplish, the major armies always have a bigger cut to the components of what makes armies, armies.
We can get a good idea about this from the last World War in 2023, a war that saw all giants of the community and many more take on each other in a heated back-and-forth. The community was divided, in a good way, as almost everyone participated in some way during World War. Despite it being one-sided, the community really felt alive after a slow year in 2022. Many developments occurred in the political space thanks to this World War, which kept politics rolling for some armies for even years after. Most importantly, the feud between the Army of Club Penguin and the Elite Guardians right after, which carried on for more than a year. The political victory of the Elite Guardians in late December 2023 led to a huge uplift that later on had them winning tournaments and appearing on the Top Tens as #1. As well as ACP, who had reached great heights in late 2024 after the 100-battle war.
This unfortunately cannot be said in today’s landscape. Despite the decent maxes of the major armies, we notice the lack of politics, warfare, and just overall activity in the general community. It is no coincidence that the state of the community (activity cost) is strongly linked to the movements of the major armies (legacy cost), and why the community suddenly feels dull now. There could be many reasons why the majors are currently following a different route in their politics, which can be explored in a different post, but we will focus on why this would really cost the actual death of armies.
What we notice is the legacy cost is very much in control of the activity cost, which tells us that what really makes this community alive is the warfare and the different political army ideologies. In recent years, we have always noticed distinct political ideologies by every major army, splitting the community into four to three sides or at the very least two, resulting in conflict and drama taking course all year. What we see today is that there isnt even one, politics are out of the window for most of the major armies currently. The general focus now seems to be only on the insider communities, which we have already seen armies like the Rebel Penguin Federation completely isolate themselves from our community. Many armies now are what you can say building the rocket that will get them to leave the atmosphere, with some already sitting comfortably in it. Armies had now built a bubble that let them focus on their space, and in the process, completely shattered the future and essence of what makes Club Penguin Armies.
As mentioned, armies will not die a “natural” way anytime soon. How armies can be presumed dead is if the legacy cost drops to an all-time low, which is what we are already seeing. In other words, armies will be dead when the idea of what made armies exist in their definition in 2006 dies. The graph below shows the warfare statistics of each year since 2020, only counting majors.
Although it might not seem significant, most of the war statistics this year came from just the Void Troops which were only created this year. If we were to remove them from the calculations, this year would stand at 110 points, an all time low not only in the past 5 years but even more than that. This shows clear inconsistencies in warfare in the year 2025, including the fact that most wars by the major armies were only against small/Medium armies.
Judging by this forecast, armies could potentially die in the year 2027 following this theory, if there are no changes in the majors’ recent war culture. Although the silver lining for this issue is that the small/medium armies have gained more spotlight in various sectors, placing greater importance on developing new armies that could potentially rise to save the major landscape.
What’s most special about Club Penguin Armies is the unpredictability of its nature, as the people who hold the most power in the community and its future are vastly changing every year in the leaders and league administrators. New people come with creative ideas and beliefs that could potentially flourish and grow the community, or with inadequate ideologies that could shatter every hope of our community continuing, as we are seeing today.
What do you think? How do you think armies will die, and what can be done to stop it?
